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Adios? CERC Poll Finds Many Californians Considering Leaving the State 

We recently conducted a poll that returned jarring results: about one-in-six California voters are seriously considering voting with their feet and exiting the state. Another 13% are giving it some thought. In raw numbers, that means 10 million Californians are considering what would amount to a mass migration. The sense the grass is greener in another state is mainly driven by politics and general dissatisfaction. A whopping 55% of non-Democrats who feel that things are on the wrong track are thinking about moving out.
Check out the KUSI news story on the poll. Have a further look at the poll research on our website.

Settling in to CERC’s New HQ

We were thrilled to open the doors of our new headquarters to some of our closest friends and favorite clients before the holidays.  In addition to taking in the evening views from our 8th floor perch while serenaded by thunderclaps during a rare San Diego downpour, guests caught up on all things San Diego while evaluating classic political ads using our state-of-the-art dial-testing equipment.

Thanks to all who stopped by for rum and sushi, including Aimee Faucett, who led a contingent from Mayor Faulconer's office, Jordan Marks (who delivered a proclamation from County Assessor Ernie Droneburg), and San Diego City Councilmen Chris Cate and Mark Kersey. We’re looking forward to great things coming out of this office and continuing to expand our footprint beyond San Diego. Drop by if you haven’t yet.

John Takes Cuba Roadtrip as Member of U.S. Baseball Team

CERC President John Nienstedt went to Cuba to play baseball last month as a member of a U.S. cultural delegation of players. The Yanks won three out of four games, the best record in 18 years of these games on the island. They also had the honor of serving as U.S. cultural ambassadors for a packed agenda of activities in Havana and Cienfuegos. John was able to visit local restaurants, the Buena Vista Social Club, the Bay of Pigs, a local elementary school, and a cigar farm, many times wearing the baseball uniform they had just played in!
The economic contrasts between the U.S. and Cuba were stark. John remarked: “the Cubans we interacted with were warm, and the rum and cigars were everything they’re chalked up to be. The countryside is frequently beautiful. But the country’s infrastructure is generally crumbling, and a testament to the failure of the socialist economic model. I had the opportunity to go grocery shopping with my hosts. A trip that would have taken us 30 minutes at the local Vons, required us to visit – in a ridiculously rickety cab because owning a car is too expensive -- eight different government-run stores to get what we needed. The stores were understocked, closed or simply unable to sell us the goods. Surveying the Cubans that I engaged with, it appears most with entrepreneurial spirit want to ‘escape’ -- their word – Cuba.”
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The Guru's BIG NUMBER of the Month:



That’s the percentage saying they definitely will “vote against” Donald Trump.

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. Jan. 10-13, 2019. N=873 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 4.2.
"Thinking about the 2020 election, do you definitely plan to vote for Donald Trump for reelection as president or do you definitely plan to vote against him?"
for Trump
against him
    % % %    
  1/10-13/19 30 57 13    

Note, however, that voting against a President is not an option. Voters cast a ballot for a candidate and therein lies hope for the president’s re-election. First, the Democrats must nominate a candidate, and, to beat Trump, that candidate must be palatable not only to the left but to the middle of the ideological spectrum. See Clinton 2016 for a botched nomination.  Second, there is the serious possibility of a viable independent candidate (maybe a fourth?) who could split the center-left in key states and hand Trump a victory. See Perot 1992 for an example that gave Bill Clinton the presidency. Third, there is a long way to go before we get to November 2020. While 57% is a big number, it does not guarantee a Democrat takes the White House. 
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San Diego’s Business Community Cheery through Holidays but Less Optimistic Moving into the New Year

The San Diego Business Forecast
The San Diego Business Forecast, sponsored by CalPrivate Bank and produced by the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, held steady through the holiday season, with a BOI that hovered at 18.4 (the index ranges from -100 to +100 with zero being neutral) and has remained at 14.9 since. The business community is marginally less optimistic than it was this time last year and significantly less optimistic than it has been historically. Do they sense a recession in the offing? Not yet, but stay tuned.
Looking back on 2018, expectations about hiring and hours offered to workers did hold steady throughout the year. However, optimism about revenue fell and the short-term outlook about business conditions became even less enthusiastic.
For the latest issues of the San Diego Business Forecast, click here.

The Brewers Do It Again – Three-peat as San Diego Adult League Baseball Champs

John Nienstedt’s baseball team finished the Fall 2018 baseball season with a big win – sealing their dominance by taking the league championship trophy again.  But beware – next season they’re bumping up to the rarified air of the AA ranks. The SDABL is literally creating a new division to make it more challenging for the Brewers. Nienstedt will have to recruit his son Johnny to hit him more grounders before the Spring 2019 season heats up in February!
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